how long will this last?

[mad_turnips]

this is my first recession ... how fun

anyway was wondering those of you that have been through all this before what sort of time scale do you think there is to get out of it? as you never seem to get a reasonable /rational opinion from the press

[bigredduke]

It rather depends on the industry you work in. Five years plus is about the norm but for some areas of the economy there is a significant time-lag. Building and construction will probably closer to ten years IMHO.

[BluprintZ]

Obviously, the press will string this out for as long as possible, it's in their interest to keep the hottest news running, people want to know what is going on and they will buy the newpapers to find that info, that is how the media works.
Heaven forbid, if there was another 9/11 or a similar disaster, the resession coverage would take a back seat, the media realised long ago that doom and gloom sells papers = profits!

G.

[Scootaboy]

2/3 years max...when the tories win the next election and the daily mail/express realises that it now suppports the government then the recession will be over, immigrants will be gone, crime will be a thing of the past and morris dancers will reclaim the streets in an orgy of British pride and....blah blah blah. (cant be bothered taking that any further)

Or they'll realise its bread and butter work is making money via hate filled paranoira and it'll go on for a bit more.

Anyway back to the subject in hand...it'll get worse before it gets better but on a brighter note heres a smiley face :)

[jimbo696]

Last bad one was in 82 i think and it took just over a year... Most pundits are predicting 15 months, the govt say by Dec 09......

[gremlin]

There was a bit of a blip in the early 90s I think, at least my house lost 18K between '88 and 90, then picked up around '95, so going on that it could be 5 years or so. When the Labour lot mucked it up in the '50s it took quite a while for things to pick up so I wouldn't think anyone will be whooping and hollaring for a while yet. As previously stated if the press find something else to write about it could be over a bit quicker. The banks are the problem, they're pushing so many firms into receivership when it's not necessary which is causing more of a downturn. After all if people aren't earning they aren't going to be putting money in the bank or investing, and if a muppet like me can see it I don't see why they can't. So much for the government assurance that small businesses would be supported but I suppose the fat cats at the top have got to have their bonuses and pensions.
One thing that was in the press though and is a good point, when Leeson broke Berings he got arrested and imprisoned, so why aren't the ones responsible for this shambles facing the same? They should at the very least have their bonuses and huge pensions stopped.

[NattyBoy]

I would say a couple of years. Listening to the press, you wouldnt believe it, but some sectors are actually doing OK.

Just remember - its not the first one we've had, it wont be the last, but we WILL get through it as histroy shows us and we will all be prosperous once more and ordering ducati bling like its going out of fashion !

As the saying goes; What doesnt kill you simply makes you stronger...!

[uksurfer]

I supply mortar to brick layers, times are hard for the company i work in.
when it all started we lost a lot of work, mainly the larger house builders.
there is no sign of that picking up, the only houses that are getting built at the moment are:
council/housing assosciation, i think the moneys in the 'bank'
small companies that are on small plots building 3-5 houses
this time last year we were doing approximately 350-400 tonne per day
we are now doing approximately 80-150 tonne per day.
Looking gloomy for us! but, heres a smiley face :chuckle:
(please could you all go and buy new houses):thumbsup:
If it picks up and i've still got a monster, i'll let you know!!!!!
One question though?
Why aren't mortgage companies passing on the lower interest rates to new buyers?
why do you already have to have a mortgage deal coming to the end to benefit from the cuts?
Sorry, that was two questions
________
Make A Vaporizer (http://howtomakeavaporizer.info/)

[Pomp1]

some sectors are doing worst than others.The most conservative predictions go for the first quarter of 2010 but I think we should start picking up in the last quarter of this year. However we will see an end to credit seen as a birthright,thanks God. Also don't forget in the next 2 months some serious plans should come out of America (greener policies, exploration of different resources, pulling out from wars) and Europe, which has been sitting on the fence waiting for Obama to decide, will follow the lead(no that this has been or is right).
One answer for both questons of Uksurfer IMO: reposessions,this is what building companies/banks want to avoid,as it stops cashflow and dent their use of fractional banking.they're not too bothered about new customers as they simply apply stricter parameters for lending.

[Gilps]

reposessions,this is what building companies/banks want to avoid,as it stops cashflow and dent their use of fractional banking.they're not too bothered about new customers as they simply apply stricter parameters for lending.
Unfortunately this is not the case this time around. The reason that some banks are being so aggressive in their reposessions is that it moves risky debt off the books and into a loss on the accounts. The reason that banks won't lend to each other is because of the risky debts that are on their books. Get rid of the risky debt, write it off as a loss, and hey presto, the bank looks clean again.
At the moment many people aren't affected by this recession but I don't think that will last much longer. This is going to get much worse before it gets better. I reckon this is going to be much worse than the late 80's/early 90's.

[Chris & Nean]

No Recession, no Crisis, just a big cake and everyone takes as BIG cut as they can.

[GS Rod]

I don't think we have seen anything like this before (I'm 53). The problem is that this is a WORLD recession. & I don't think the UK can come out of it by itself. I own my own business & work in many countries and business is terrible everywhere ( I am writing this from a jet laged sleepless night in Tokyo ! ).
I think the first positive signs will come when/if the US start to come out of it.
Here's hoping that it is soon.............but i doubt it !
Good night.....or is that morning !!

[lcjohnny]

Agreed it is a world recession
so there is no easy way out :(

but the "great depression" was only 5 years for UK (historians correct me). However peronally I believe it may be worse for UK than most Western countries this time, because (post thatcher/major) we have become a very simple economy i.e: we are not diversified and therefore we have to wait till the bits of capitalism that we are good at get better.

Nowadays we major on

Financial Services (we have sooo much credibility in this sector - so maybe we "used to" major on this?)
Service Industry ( to all the rich people......... where are they????)
Retail (but who is spending? not Tesco they buy from abroad)
Primary Production (Oil and we are running out)

We are very weak on

Manufacturing (should be our ace in the hole with a weak pound!! BUT!!!) PS who built the new Queen Mary?
Farming (we import 60% of out Bacon - see Teso's above)

Sorry for th eblues but i work in services tooo:drunk:

PS if any one cares I am 53 too (brilliant because you are allowed to drink you r age in units)
Who says?

I say!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stafford]

Anyone got a paddle?

[Darkness]

A cheery thought: 10 years!

This has similarities with 1929 and this is what the BBC say about that:

HOW WAS THE SITUATION RESOLVED?The Great Depression lingered on despite the variety of New Deal measures that attempted to alleviate the suffering of individuals by providing government jobs, welfare relief or mortgage protection.

It was only the onset of World War II, when the US government finally embraced Keynesian-style deficit spending on a large scale, that the economy recovered.

US economic output doubled during the war, and unemployment vanished as women and black people were pulled into the workforce to replace the millions drafted into the military.

At its peak, the US government was borrowing half the money needed to finance the war, while half was raised by taxes.

And I don't hold out much hope that David Cameron will be able to speed up a recovery because Gordon Brown isn't likely to call an election until he has to because with the opinion polls where they are he'll get buried, and the trouble with Keynsian Monetary Policy is that you have to pay off the credit card bill later, so there'll be no options except to borrow more off the IMF or tax the plebs, neither of which is going to generate growth